Tesla has been in its auto pilot project since 2013, since then Elon made lots of projections about when they will be able to achieve a fully autonomous status. But every time he made this project he turned out to be wrong. They were only able to come up with the version FSD with self driving ability of level Two. Which is far from fully autonomous vehicles. But since then they have been able to put more 100 thousand cars with FSD installed on the roads. So, Because of that the amount of learning they will be able to get will be massive and the possibility to achieve self driving status of level 4 or 5 increased 100 thousand times.
How Much Money Tesla Could Earn Through This By 2025 to 2030.
My projection is based upon if Tesla is able to sell their self-driving capacity to just Tesla owners at the rate of $12000 and add 10% of the total Tesla each year from 2026 to 2030. And Tesla keeps Adding up vehicles at 20% growth rate.
How Much Money Tesla Will Make in 2026 By Autopilot.
To know this first we need to accomplish how many cars Tesla will have on the roads each year.
- Growth pattern of Tesla in terms of car sales.
| Sr | Year | Number of car sales | Growth in percentage |
| 1 | 2019 | 367656 | 49.7 |
| 2 | 2020 | 499535 | 35.8 |
| 3 | 2021 | 936222 | 87 |
| 4 | 2022 | 1313851 | 40 |
| 5 | 2023 | 1845985 | 40 |
| Average Growth | 50.5 | ||
Tesla Growth has been staggering in the last five years of 50.5% on average from 2019 to 2024. As the volume grows big it becomes very hard to maintain the same level of Growth. So, my Assumption is that Tesla will Grow at the pace of 20 % in the coming years and until 2030.
- How many cars Tesla will have if it kept Growing 20 % each year until 2030
| Sr | Year | Increase number of valence at 20% growth | Total number of valence Tesla will have have on roads |
| 1 | 2024 | 361716 | 6782158 |
| 2 | 2025 | 434059 | 7216223 |
| 3 | 2026 | 520871 | 7737088 |
| 4 | 2027 | 625046 | 8362140 |
| 5 | 2028 | 750055 | 9112189 |
| 6 | 2029 | 900066 | 10012255 |
| 7 | 2030 | 1080079 | 11092334 |
4.6 Million vehicles are already by 2023 on the roads by Tesla so this figure is added to the 2024 total figure.
- How much money it is going to make by 2030.
Start will be hard in terms of adoption of the self driving vehicle in the first years as the thing will start so, good words and quality of the product will take it far.
If 10 % owner of Tesla adopts in 2025 and 26 the money it will make.
10% of Tesla will be 721622 cars at the price of $12000 this will make $8.65 billion.
If the adoption rate reaches 20% in 2027
If the adoption rate reaches 20% it means 20% of this year’s added cars and 10 % of old cars will turn to self driving. The total cars will be 898716.This will make at a price point of $10.78 billion.
If adoption reached 30% in 2028.
If adoption reaches 30 % it means 30% percent of all new vehicles in 2028 and 10 % of the old vehicles. Then the total number of valence will be 998724. At the price of $12000 it will give Tesla about $11.98 billion.
If the adoption reached 40% in 2029
If the adoption reached 40% it means 40% of the all new vehicles of 2029 and 10 % will get the adoptions. The vehicles that year will be adopted 1196240. And the money Tesla can make out of it will be $14.35 billion.
If the adoption reached at 50 % in 2030
If the adoption reaches 50% it means 50% of all new vehicles will adopt self driving and 10% will add from the old one. The total number of vehicles will be added to adoption 1.5 million which will give Tesla almost $18.5 billion.
The sum of all these figures will be Tesla could make up to $ 64.26 billions. It means Tesla could make $64.26 billion. With their self driving car pilot project.
Obviously Tesla could adopt aggressive strategies to make money. If they are the only ones in the market. They can sell their model to other car companies which give them more profits.
The things can also be different if other companies like waymo, cruise make the car earlier than Tesla.